Market Proofs

• The channel — daily closes in HEX terms; each window starts where the trend turns flat (the longest such span), and the channel is the regression ±0.5 standard deviations.
• The blue line marks the channel's top and the red line its bottom — the two levels labeled on the scale.
• Volume across the bottom — a thin-pool print is only as reliable as the volume behind it, and volume here has been rising in recent months.
• The idea — mean reversion, explained in Mean Regression Trading.
• Where these feed — the Price Curve and the Curve Table at the top of the Yield Curve page.

The channels above are the visible example — the trace left on a chart.  They are worth showing, but they are not the reason an HTT price follows HEX.  The reason is structural, it can be measured, and this section is that measurement.

The idea, in one line

Heart’s Law — tokens that share liquidity rise and fall together.  A pool holds two tokens against a constant product, so every trade moves both sides at once.  The power is not in noticing this; it is in building it.  Bind a token into an established one deliberately, across many pools, and it inherits that token’s price behaviour.  A token held by eight pools at once is far harder to knock loose than one held by a single thin market.

Actuator is the tightest-bound ecosystem we can find

Binding asks how much of HEX’s volatility the HTT/HEX ratio refuses to pass through.  1.00 would be a perfect peg; 0.00 means the pool has no hold at all.  Every token below is measured over the same 295 days against the partner it is actually pooled with.

• The HTTs win as a class — mean 0.607 across the five, and three of them take the top three places outright.  Stated honestly: PLSX at 0.550 lands inside the HTT range, above two of them, so the class wins on average and on mechanism — not on every row.
• ACTR is the control experiment — Actuator’s own token binds at just 0.118.  Binding is not something a token catches from the project it belongs to.  HTTs track HEX because each is a redeemable claim on HEX, not because they are “Actuator things.”
• USDC marks the boundary — -0.002, or nothing at all, despite sitting in a large WPLS pool.  A token redeemable at par for something outside the pool cannot be dragged by it.  That is a currency board, and knowing where the law stops is what makes it a usable test.

An HTT is a currency board on HEX — with a date on it

That boundary is not a weakness in Actuator’s case — it is the design.  Every HTT is fully collateralized by a delegated stake and becomes convertible 1:1 for HEX at its maturity date: 100% reserves, fixed rate, open window — the structure Steve H. Hanke and Kurt Schuler describe for national currency boards.  The only difference is the clock.  Before maturity the window is not yet open, so the market prices the wait as a discount.  Read the average level of each ratio in order and that pricing is the whole yield curve:

• The order never breaks — across all 295 days, the further the maturity, the deeper the average discount.  No inversions.  That ordering is the yield curve, and the channels above are five windows onto it.
• Pool depth, so “thin” is a number — $619,345 across all five pools as of 2026-08-15, the smallest at $78,607.  Every price on this page comes out of those pools, which is why trade size matters (Slippage).
• One thing we tested and disproved — we expected binding to tighten as maturity approached.  It does not.  The apparent relationship decayed from -0.76 at 11 days to -0.45 at 90 to -0.089 at 295 — the signature of noise, not signal.  The discount orders by maturity; the tightness does not.