Market Proofs

This page forms the Yield Curve page’s Blue-Top & Red-Bottom channels.

Market HTT Prices — HTT/HEX Regression Channels

Updated 2026-10-02 13:27 UTC

The channel — starts where the trend turns flat (the longest such span), and the channel is the regression ±0.5 standard deviations.
The blue line marks the channel's top and the red line its bottom — the two levels labeled on the scale.
Volume across the bottom — notice, volume here has been rising in recent months.
The idea — mean reversion, explained in Mean Regression Trading.
Where these feed — the Price Curve and the Curve Table at the top of the Yield Curve page.

HTT-8000: level regression channel (top 66.8%, bottom 46.8% of HEX parity), last hour's discount 44.6%, with daily volume below

HTT-7000: level regression channel (top 61.2%, bottom 53.2% of HEX parity), last hour's discount 48.0%, with daily volume below

HTT-6000: level regression channel (top 76.2%, bottom 59.1% of HEX parity), last hour's discount 37.0%, with daily volume below

HTT-5000: level regression channel (top 72.0%, bottom 65.0% of HEX parity), last hour's discount 33.5%, with daily volume below

HTT-4000: level regression channel (top 85.1%, bottom 70.0% of HEX parity), last hour's discount 26.6%, with daily volume below

HTT-3000: level regression channel (top 87.3%, bottom 73.9% of HEX parity), last hour's discount 27.1%, with daily volume below

Return to Channel

Pools read 2026-10-02 13:27 UTC

What it measures — Buy HTT: the HEX spent buying the series’ HTT in its main HTT/HEX pool that lifts its price to the channel’s bottom, and to its middle (halfway between the red and blue lines). “Inside” and “Above” mean the price already sits at or above that level.
The sell side — Sell HTT: the HTT that, sold into the same pool for HEX, drops the price to the middle and to the bottom: how much a new series’ minter can sell before the price leaves the channel’s upper half, or the channel. Under it, the HEX that sale brings out — less than HTT × price, because each sale lowers the price for the next. “Below” means the price already sits at or under that level.
How — the pool’s own math: lifting the price by a factor r takes the pool’s HEX × (√r − 1), and lowering it takes the pool’s HTT × (√r − 1), plus the 0.29% swap fee. Reserves are read on chain; levels are this morning’s channel (2026-10-02); dollars at the 2026-10-02 HEX price.
A floor, not a forecast — the least buy that gets there, with nobody selling into it; holders who sell on the way up raise the cost. The same holds for a sale: buyers stepping in on the way down let more be sold.
Sorting — tap a heading to rank by it, highest first; tap again for lowest first.

Series	Price (HEX)	Bottom	Middle	Buy HTT to Bottom	Buy HTT to Middle	Sell HTT to Middle	Sell HTT to Bottom
HTT-8000	0.55	0.47	0.57	Inside	53k HEX<^$1k	Below	703k HTT357k HEX^$1k
HTT-7000	0.52	0.53	0.57	445k HEX^$1k	1,895k HEX^$6k	Below	Below
HTT-6000	0.63	0.59	0.68	Inside	912k HEX^$3k	Below	1,296k HTT788k HEX^$2k
HTT-5000	0.66	0.65	0.68	Inside	298k HEX<^$1k	Below	345k HTT226k HEX<^$1k
HTT-4000	0.73	0.70	0.78	Inside	444k HEX^$1k	Below	529k HTT378k HEX^$1k
HTT-3000	0.73	0.74	0.81	75k HEX<^$1k	574k HEX^$2k	Below	Below

What Holds the Ratio — Heart’s Law, Measured

295-day study · 2026-07-27

The channels above are the visible example — the trace left on a chart. They are worth showing, but they are not the reason an HTT price follows HEX. The reason is structural, it can be measured, and this section is that measurement.

The Idea, in One Line

Heart’s Law — tokens that share liquidity rise and fall together. A pool holds two tokens against a constant product, so every trade moves both sides at once. The power is not in noticing this; it is in building it. Bind a token into an established one deliberately, across many pools, and it inherits that token’s price behavior. A token held by eight pools at once is far harder to knock loose than one held by a single thin market.

Actuator Is the Tightest-Bound Ecosystem We Can Find

Binding asks how much of HEX’s volatility the HTT/HEX ratio refuses to pass through. 1.00 would be a perfect peg; 0.00 means the pool has no hold at all. Every token below is measured over the same 295 days against the partner it is actually pooled with.

The HTTs win as a class — mean 0.607 across the five, and three of them take the top three places outright. Stated honestly: PLSX at 0.550 lands inside the HTT range, above two of them, so the class wins on average and on mechanism — not on every row.
ACTR is the control experiment — Actuator’s own token binds at just 0.118. Binding is not something a token catches from the project it belongs to. HTTs track HEX because each is a redeemable claim on HEX, not because they are “Actuator things.”
USDC marks the boundary — -0.002, or nothing at all, despite sitting in a large WPLS pool. A token redeemable at par for something outside the pool cannot be dragged by it. That is a currency board, and knowing where the law stops is what makes it a usable test.

Token	Bound to	Binding	What it is
HTT-3000	HEX	0.671	Actuator instrument
HTT-4000	HEX	0.492	Actuator instrument
HTT-5000	HEX	0.714	Actuator instrument
HTT-6000	HEX	0.533	Actuator instrument
HTT-7000	HEX	0.624	Actuator instrument
PLSX	WPLS	0.550	PulseX — binding is incidental, not designed
HEX	WPLS	0.425	the reserve asset itself
INC	WPLS	0.420	PulseX farm token
WETH	WPLS	0.181	bridged — priced by the outside market
ACTR	HEX	0.118	Actuator’s own token — the control
USDC	WPLS	-0.002	a currency board — the pool has no hold at all

An HTT Is a Currency Board on HEX — with a Date on It

That boundary is not a weakness in Actuator’s case — it is the design. Every HTT is fully collateralized by a delegated stake and becomes convertible 1:1 for HEX at its maturity date: 100% reserves, fixed rate, open window — the structure Steve H. Hanke and Kurt Schuler describe for national currency boards. The only difference is the clock. Before maturity the window is not yet open, so the market prices the wait as a discount. Read the average level of each ratio in order and that pricing is the whole yield curve.

The order never breaks — across all 295 days, the further the maturity, the deeper the average discount. No inversions in that ordering. That is the price curve, and the channels above are six windows onto it. Annualized it is another matter: on 2026-10-02 HTT-3000 paid 25.7% a year and HTT-7000 5.4% — the yield curve is inverted (the Due Diligence YTM column).
Pool depth, so “thin” is a number — ^$570,321 across the 5 pools this study measures, as of 2026-10-02, the smallest at ^$57,325. Every price on this page comes out of those pools, which is why trade size matters (Slippage).
One thing we tested and disproved — we expected binding to tighten as maturity approached. It does not. The apparent relationship decayed from -0.76 at 11 days to -0.45 at 90 to -0.089 at 295 — the signature of noise, not signal. The discount orders by maturity; the tightness does not.

Maturity	Days away	Avg. level vs HEX	Discount	Pool depth (2026-10-02)
HTT-3000	504	83.3%	16.7%	^$57,325
HTT-4000	1,504	79.6%	20.4%	^$82,073
HTT-5000	2,504	70.3%	29.7%	^$102,471
HTT-6000	3,504	70.2%	29.8%	^$128,441
HTT-7000	4,504	61.2%	38.8%	^$200,011

How these numbers were made. Every figure is read straight from PulseX pool reserves over archive state on the public PulseChain RPC — 301 samples, one per 8,173 blocks (an assumed one-day stride), spanning 295 calendar days (2025-10-05 to 2026-07-27) — PulseChain's blocks ran slightly fast, so 300 block-day strides landed in 295 calendar days. No third-party price API is used at any step: USD comes from the WPLS/DAI pool, and every other price is derived through the pools themselves, so the whole chain is reproducible by anyone with an RPC endpoint. Binding is 1 − (volatility of the pair ratio ÷ volatility of the partner’s own price), on daily log changes. It is deliberately not a correlation: correlation confounds pool binding with ordinary market drift — bridged WETH correlates 0.399 with WPLS yet binds only 0.181, because that co-movement is risk-asset beta, not the pool. Measured 2026-07-27; a one-off study, not a daily feed, so treat the levels as of that date.

About these charts:the regression-channel charts are generated daily from each pool's price history (GeckoTerminal data, prices in HEX terms) — each window starts where the trend turns level (the longest flat span available), the channel is the regression ±0.5σ, and the blue/red lines mark its top and bottom levels. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.